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Exploring the Future Prospects and Status of New Energy Bus

Release Date:2017-09-21 Page View:391

As early as 2009, the proportion of new energy commercial vehicles in the entire new energy vehicle market was as high as 95.09% and 93.88%, respectively. According to expert calculations, more than 70% of new energy commercial vehicles are passenger car products. From this analysis, it can be seen that new energy passenger cars are currently the focus and focus of research, development, production, and competition for Chinese automotive industry enterprises in the new energy field. The important position and prospects of new energy buses can be seen from the beginning of their development.

Recently, a version of the latest draft on financial subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2016 has been circulating online, which mainly releases four aspects of information: ① the subsidy for passenger cars remains unchanged; ② Pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric buses are subsidized based on energy density, with range as a necessary indicator; Pure electric buses loaded with fast charging batteries are subsidized according to the charging rate of the energy storage system; ③ The technical indicators of logistics vehicles are still being drafted, and the subsidy is temporarily postponed The subsidy policy may be introduced within this month.

Chen Qingquan, President of the World Electric Vehicle Association, once stated that "the current development of electric vehicles in China is not entirely healthy, and the biggest problem is excessive reliance on subsidies

The original intention of subsidy policies is to cultivate the initial market, but long-term implementation of consumer subsidies can easily cause enterprises to suffer from dependence on government policies, focus on policies to set products, and lack the motivation and pressure for technological research and development and industrial upgrading. The industry is prone to low-level blind expansion, forming new industry surplus.

So the purpose of subsidy adjustment may be to accumulate technology in the passenger car industry and avoid low-level products flooding the market. New energy remains the direction, and promoting technological progress and industrial development is the goal.

In terms of market sales scale: From January to September 2016, the sales of new energy buses in China were approximately 56900 units. According to the data in the "Investment Analysis and Prospects Forecast Report of China's Bus Industry from 2017 to 2021" by a certain institution, from January to August 2016, a total of 27 out of 50 enterprises were involved in the new energy bus field. The sales of new energy buses above 5 meters reached 45044, a year-on-year increase of 47.64%. Among them, 7905 new energy seat buses were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 34.33%, and 36481 new energy bus buses were sold, a year-on-year increase of 97.71%. From January to August 2016, the proportion of sales of new energy buses above 5 meters reached 33.31%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points compared to 22.21% in the same period last year.

Subsidies, technology upgrades, new energy buses, subsidies, batteries

A certain institution stated in the "Investment Analysis and Prospects Prediction Report of China's Bus Industry from 2017 to 2021" that the development trajectory of bus and coach industry in the past 10 years has been very clear, with a rapid transition from large-scale and gas based to new energy based. By the end of 2016, the number of public buses will reach over 500000, of which about 200000 will be new energy buses. Based on the current substitution rate, it is speculated that by 2020, after the end of the subsidy policy, public buses will basically achieve "new energy", that is, all traditional public buses will be replaced by new energy public buses.



Through the new energy of buses in various cities, the distance between Alternative fuel vehicle and the general public is narrowed, which will certainly improve the recognition and recognition of Alternative fuel vehicle in the hearts of ordinary consumers, and will also increase everyone's sense of trust. This has laid a good mass foundation for the promotion and popularization of Alternative fuel vehicle in the future.

Everything today is for tomorrow's development.

In the international market, the United States not only invests heavily in researching battery technology, but California, after 13 years of exploration and practice in environmental protection and vehicles, has stated that it no longer actively encourages the development of pure electric vehicles, but has shifted to fuel cells. The United States Department of Energy approved a fund of $15 million for the cost sharing project of "industrial research, development and demonstration of electric vehicles using batteries", including use efficiency, power storage, power supply quality, etc. Small, low-speed, and special purpose pure electric vehicles are constantly developing.

However, due to factors such as technology and price, more Japanese automotive companies have chosen hybrid vehicles and FCVs as their key development directions in their research and development strategies for new energy vehicles.

Compared to the United States, Europe advocates pure electric vehicles that pursue perfect zero pollution. We attach great importance to and support pure electric vehicles, and have introduced many preferential, supportive, subsidized, and supportive policies to encourage research and development and production industrialization.

The future development path of new energy buses in China is still broad. The country has regarded the public service sector as an important breakthrough for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and the Ministry of Transport has always attached great importance to this. Firstly, promote the application of new energy vehicles in the public transportation and rental industries; Secondly, actively explore the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles in urban logistics distribution and postal express delivery; Thirdly, we attach great importance to the safety issues of new energy vehicles and ensure their application safety.

Public transportation: subsidies are inclined towards vehicles with good actual emission reduction effects

The operation subsidy scheme that links the number of new energy vehicles applied and promoted with the operating mileage index and oil subsidy measures is more reasonable to give appropriate subsidies to natural gas buses, encourage public transport enterprises to implement the "oil to gas" project, and increase investment in clean energy to alleviate urban environmental pollution.

Passenger transportation: suitable for the application of new energy in medium and short distances

As the traditional main battlefield of highway passenger transportation shifts from long-distance to medium and short distance, it is expected that highway passenger transportation will develop in two directions: public transportation and new energy. In medium and short distance passenger transportation, new energy buses have obvious advantages. Especially for pure electric buses, it reduces operating and maintenance costs, improves ride comfort, reduces driver driving intensity, and improves driving safety.

Charging facilities: unified standards and specifications to accelerate construction

As for the construction quantity and layout of the existing charging infrastructure, the experts present at the meeting all said that more efforts should be made to invest in the construction. It is suggested that for cities with limited land resources, the charging problem of electric logistics vehicles can be alleviated by opening the space under the Viaduct to build piles.

Value FCV as a chess piece

In fact, FCV is considered the most ideal direction for the development of new energy vehicles, not only possessing advantages such as high energy efficiency, clean emissions, and convenient use, but also depicting a beautiful blueprint for its diverse sources of hydrogen.

According to the international FCV development roadmap, FCV will fully enter the era of commercialization in 2025. During this period, the development of FCV faced two major challenges: firstly, significantly reducing manufacturing costs; The second is to vigorously promote the popularization of hydrogen infrastructure.

In the process of researching new energy, we cannot abandon the research on FCV, because without national top-level planning, there may be homogenization and low-level competition in various regions, with a development model that prioritizes independent development and foreign introduction, which may lead China's FCV to enter the old path of traditional automobile development.

By conducting multi-directional research, maintaining foresight in the field of new energy, and valuing every piece of chess, we can take every step of the new energy vehicle revolution well.